Qualification · Qualification 78

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

146.24 – 270.32

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

163 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 24.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 452.2 ±13.7

144Operation Orange

Season APEX 112.7Event APEX 13.58Rank 42Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 76.56Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1126SPARX

Season APEX 118.9Event APEX 56.1Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 453.4 ±16.3

424Rust Belt Robotics

Season APEX 220.8Event APEX 150.06Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10223Crimson Jewels

Provisional

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 31.85Rank 26Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

5528Ultime

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 88.41Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 144, 48, 1126

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.2 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 144, 48, 1126

Auto

19.0 14%

Teleop

74.1 53%

Endgame

47.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 424, 10223, 5528

/ 100 compat

Projected

270.3 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 424, 10223, 5528

Auto

62.9 24%

Teleop

138.7 54%

Endgame

56.5 22%

Strengths

· 424 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.92 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score146.2pts

Blue projected score270.3pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -124.1
Score range: 120–296
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 465 vs event baseline 142.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

452.2Season APEX453.4

19Auto62.9

74.1Teleop138.7

47.5Endgame56.5

27Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	70
teleop	79	165
endgame	60	62
foul	5	5
total	163	302

Result

Final score

163 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 24.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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