Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

171.7 – 136.84

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

223 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 34.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 548.8 ±12.8

578Fairport Robotics

Season APEX 77Event APEX 7.91Rank 45Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1591Greece Gladiators

Season APEX 206.6Event APEX 53.02Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

340G.R.R. (Greater Rochester Robotics)

Season APEX 265.2Event APEX 110.77Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 409 ±17.7

5590Alumiboti

Season APEX 149.8Event APEX 18.11Rank 51Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 86

1518Raider Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 17.82Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1405Finney Falcons

Season APEX 188.4Event APEX 100.91Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 578, 1591, 340

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 578, 1591, 340

Auto

46.7 27%

Teleop

101.0 59%

Endgame

23.9 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5590, 1518, 1405

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5590, 1518, 1405

Auto

25.2 19%

Teleop

68.8 52%

Endgame

38.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score171.7pts

Blue projected score136.8pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.9
Score range: 111–198
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 377 vs event baseline 141.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

548.8Season APEX409

46.7Auto25.2

101Teleop68.8

23.9Endgame38.9

55Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	28
teleop	99	66
endgame	40	55
foul	35	5
total	223	154

Result

Final score

223 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 34.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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