Qualification · Qualification 74
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
80.47 – 153.87
29%71%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
111 – 263
Prediction correct · off by 69.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 211.6 ±17.5
Season APEX 88.3Event APEX 33.62Rank 36Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92
Season APEX 38.8Event APEX -7.2Rank 53Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 88
3838Roc City Robotix
Provisional
Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 54.05Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 508.5 ±13.7
Season APEX 64.9Event APEX 8.32Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88
Season APEX 323.3Event APEX 130.84Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 14.71Rank 40Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1781, 7903, 3838
48
/ 100 compatProjected
80.5 pts
~1.1 RP (regional)
Teams: 1781, 7903, 3838
Auto
18.7 23%
Teleop
39.6 48%
Endgame
23.8 29%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 564, 694, 20
69
/ 100 compatProjected
153.9 pts
~1.9 RP (regional)
Teams: 564, 694, 20
Auto
30.1 20%
Teleop
72.4 48%
Endgame
47.6 32%
Strengths
- · 694 anchors offense
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.94
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score80.5pts
Blue projected score153.9pts
Red win probability29%
Event bonus sample198alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 53%, blue 47%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -73.4
- Score range
- 55–179
- Upset likelihood
- 29%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
211.6Season APEX508.5
18.7Auto30.1
39.6Teleop72.4
23.8Endgame47.6
37Consistency79
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 32 | 44 |
| teleop | 50 | 156 |
| endgame | 24 | 63 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 111 | 263 |
Result
Final score
111 – 263
Prediction correct · off by 69.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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