Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

89.6 – 67.69

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

206 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 61.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 352.8 ±15.3

3951SUITS

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 40.21Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1056Hot Rocks

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 50.55Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

353POBots

Season APEX 169.7Event APEX -1.16Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 287.5 ±15

325Respawn Robotics

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 21.23Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

191X-CATS

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 29.14Rank 41Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1468Hicksville J-Birds

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 17.32Rank 48Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3951, 1056, 353

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.6 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3951, 1056, 353

Auto

11.7 13%

Teleop

56.3 63%

Endgame

21.2 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 325, 191, 1468

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 325, 191, 1468

Auto

15.8 28%

Teleop

17.2 31%

Endgame

22.6 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score89.6pts

Blue projected score67.7pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.9
Score range: 43–115
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 280 vs event baseline 141.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

352.8Season APEX287.5

11.7Auto15.8

56.3Teleop17.2

21.2Endgame22.6

68Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	13
teleop	135	36
endgame	41	25
foul	5	0
total	206	74

Result

Final score

206 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 61.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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