Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

192.53 – 152.28

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

221 – 255

Prediction missed · off by 65.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 510.2 ±11.7

8503Raid One

Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 32.78Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 73.26Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5528Ultime

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 86.49Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 546.3 ±15.9

3044Team 0xBE4

Season APEX 259.2Event APEX 45.94Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3181Pittsford Panthers

Season APEX 233Event APEX 99.11Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4093Hardwired

Provisional

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 7.23Rank 54Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8503, 48, 5528

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8503, 48, 5528

Auto

44.5 25%

Teleop

99.6 57%

Endgame

31.0 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3044, 3181, 4093

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3044, 3181, 4093

Auto

15.2 10%

Teleop

100.2 65%

Endgame

37.6 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score192.5pts

Blue projected score152.3pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.3
Score range: 127–218
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 476 vs event baseline 139.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

510.2Season APEX546.3

44.5Auto15.2

99.6Teleop100.2

31Endgame37.6

87Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	63
teleop	89	135
endgame	65	52
foul	20	5
total	221	255

Result

Final score

221 – 255

Prediction missed · off by 65.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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