Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

135.67 – 118.65

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

123 – 205

Prediction missed · off by 49.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 374.6 ±14.5

4458Infernobotix

Season APEX 108.7Event APEX 40.84Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4253Raid Zero

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 48.79Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4930Electric Mayhem

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 46.04Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 392 ±13.5

144Operation Orange

Season APEX 112.7Event APEX 7.17Rank 42Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

1787The Flying Circuits

Season APEX 209.9Event APEX 84.7Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

639Code Red Robotics

Season APEX 69.4Event APEX 26.78Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4458, 4253, 4930

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4458, 4253, 4930

Auto

32.8 25%

Teleop

66.0 50%

Endgame

32.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 144, 1787, 639

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 144, 1787, 639

Auto

34.5 29%

Teleop

51.3 43%

Endgame

34.8 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score135.7pts

Blue projected score118.7pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17
Score range: 94–161
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 328 vs event baseline 139.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

374.6Season APEX392

32.8Auto34.5

66Teleop51.3

32.8Endgame34.8

1Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	46
teleop	70	118
endgame	31	41
foul	15	0
total	123	205

Result

Final score

123 – 205

Prediction missed · off by 49.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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