Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.71 – 100.5

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

196 – 40

Prediction missed · off by 100.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 378.7 ±13.9

9016Syosset SuperSonics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 13.11Rank 46Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

271Mechanical Marauders

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 7.13Rank 27Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 35.47Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 246.4 ±17.7

810The Mechanical Bulls

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 33.89Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9767Magnificat MagnifiBots

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 37.28Rank 28Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

378The Circuit Stompers

Provisional

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 29.33Rank 52Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9016, 271, 3173

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9016, 271, 3173

Auto

11.2 22%

Teleop

23.9 47%

Endgame

15.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 810, 9767, 378

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 810, 9767, 378

Auto

26.2 31%

Teleop

20.7 24%

Endgame

38.9 45%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score55.7pts

Blue projected score100.5pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44.8
Score range: 31–126
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 236 vs event baseline 139.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

378.7Season APEX246.4

11.2Auto26.2

23.9Teleop20.7

15.5Endgame38.9

79Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	18
teleop	118	11
endgame	43	6
foul	0	5
total	196	40

Result

Final score

196 – 40

Prediction missed · off by 100.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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