Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

310.13 – 237.01

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

366 – 261

Prediction correct · off by 39.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 647.8 ±12.4

432The Final Countdown

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 33.25Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 88

424Rust Belt Robotics

Season APEX 220.8Event APEX 148.81Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

694StuyPulse

A+

Season APEX 323.3Event APEX 128.07Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 667.6 ±12.4

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 49.29Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3015Ranger Robotics

A+

Season APEX 312.5Event APEX 171.05Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5590Alumiboti

Season APEX 149.8Event APEX 16.67Rank 51Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 432, 424, 694

/ 100 compat

Projected

310.1 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 432, 424, 694

Auto

45.3 15%

Teleop

179.6 60%

Endgame

72.2 24%

Strengths

· 424 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1511, 3015, 5590

/ 100 compat

Projected

237 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1511, 3015, 5590

Auto

54.7 23%

Teleop

147.4 62%

Endgame

35.4 15%

Strengths

· 3015 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.04 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score310.1pts

Blue projected score237pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 73.1
Score range: 212–335
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 627 vs event baseline 136.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

647.8Season APEX667.6

45.3Auto54.7

179.6Teleop147.4

72.2Endgame35.4

41Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	78
teleop	193	131
endgame	85	52
foul	25	0
total	366	261

Result

Final score

366 – 261

Prediction correct · off by 39.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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