Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

112.67 – 142.81

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

107 – 101

Prediction missed · off by 23.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 439.9 ±14.5

1591Greece Gladiators

Season APEX 206.6Event APEX 56.93Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

20The Rocketeers

Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 24.51Rank 40Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2228CougarTech

Season APEX 113Event APEX 31.23Rank 11Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 473.6 ±16.9

6947Savage Tumaz

Provisional

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 26.74Rank 38Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3003TAN(X)

Season APEX 148.1Event APEX 0.48Rank 55Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 86

340G.R.R. (Greater Rochester Robotics)

Season APEX 265.2Event APEX 115.59Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1591, 20, 2228

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1591, 20, 2228

Auto

27.7 27%

Teleop

36.4 36%

Endgame

37.6 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6947, 3003, 340

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6947, 3003, 340

Auto

38.4 28%

Teleop

93.1 68%

Endgame

5.4 4%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score112.7pts

Blue projected score142.8pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.1
Score range: 88–168
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 208 vs event baseline 136.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

439.9Season APEX473.6

27.7Auto38.4

36.4Teleop93.1

37.6Endgame5.4

56Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	57
teleop	26	42
endgame	47	2
foul	5	0
total	107	101

Result

Final score

107 – 101

Prediction missed · off by 23.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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