Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

38.04 – 73.78

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

155 – 88

Prediction missed · off by 65.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 333.2 ±17.7

8503Raid One

Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 19.9Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1559Devil Tech

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 40.23Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

7030The ROBOlympians

Provisional

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX -22.09Rank 32Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 228.5 ±18.2

7903Tigers

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX -5.6Rank 53Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 88

1126SPARX

Season APEX 118.9Event APEX 61.49Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1518Raider Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 17.89Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8503, 1559, 7030

/ 100 compat

Projected

38 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8503, 1559, 7030

Auto

20.0 87%

Teleop

12.7 55%

Endgame

-9.8 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7903, 1126, 1518

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7903, 1126, 1518

Auto

25.7 32%

Teleop

39.9 50%

Endgame

13.6 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score38pts

Blue projected score73.8pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.7
Score range: 13–99
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 243 vs event baseline 137.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

333.2Season APEX228.5

20Auto25.7

12.7Teleop39.9

-9.8Endgame13.6

58Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	24
teleop	108	31
endgame	19	28
foul	0	5
total	155	88

Result

Final score

155 – 88

Prediction missed · off by 65.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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