Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

47.79 – 79.39

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

65 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 38.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 181.9 ±20

4093Hardwired

Provisional

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 1.51Rank 54Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1468Hicksville J-Birds

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 21.91Rank 48Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

378The Circuit Stompers

Provisional

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 24.37Rank 52Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 459.5 ±13.9

3044Team 0xBE4

Season APEX 259.2Event APEX 36.57Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

810The Mechanical Bulls

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 26.65Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

639Code Red Robotics

Season APEX 69.4Event APEX 16.17Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4093, 1468, 378

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.8 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4093, 1468, 378

Auto

10.3 24%

Teleop

17.8 42%

Endgame

14.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3044, 810, 639

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3044, 810, 639

Auto

20.5 26%

Teleop

32.1 41%

Endgame

26.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score47.8pts

Blue projected score79.4pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.6
Score range: 23–104
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 204 vs event baseline 137.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

181.9Season APEX459.5

10.3Auto20.5

17.8Teleop32.1

14.1Endgame26.1

76Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	18
teleop	22	79
endgame	29	42
foul	0	0
total	65	139

Result

Final score

65 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 38.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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