Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

132.11 – 4.46

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

206 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 77.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 405.2 ±15.6

3181Pittsford Panthers

Season APEX 233Event APEX 86.82Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6868Cadet Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 31.62Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

578Fairport Robotics

Season APEX 77Event APEX 13.67Rank 45Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 311.3 ±13.9

353POBots

Season APEX 169.7Event APEX -9.54Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9016Syosset SuperSonics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 5.2Rank 46Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

564Longwood RoboLions

Season APEX 64.9Event APEX 8.8Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3181, 6868, 578

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.1 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3181, 6868, 578

Auto

24.2 18%

Teleop

76.5 57%

Endgame

34.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 353, 9016, 564

/ 100 compat

Projected

4.5 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 353, 9016, 564

Auto

4.5 51%

Teleop

0.2 2%

Endgame

4.2 47%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.19 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score132.1pts

Blue projected score4.5pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 127.7
Score range: -21–157
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 292 vs event baseline 137.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

405.2Season APEX311.3

24.2Auto4.5

76.5Teleop0.2

34.4Endgame4.2

42Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	27
teleop	122	32
endgame	48	27
foul	0	0
total	206	86

Result

Final score

206 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 77.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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