Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

152.44 – 108.79

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

225 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 64.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 392.1 ±14.5

6423Ward Melville Iron Patriots

Season APEX 83Event APEX -10.33Rank 19Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1781Lindblom Electric Eagles

Season APEX 88.3Event APEX 21.06Rank 36Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

424Rust Belt Robotics

Season APEX 220.8Event APEX 141.71Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 291.5 ±19.3

3799Electric Fire

Provisional

Season APEX 98Event APEX 46.22Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

432The Final Countdown

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 29.7Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 88

3951SUITS

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 32.87Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6423, 1781, 424

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.4 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6423, 1781, 424

Auto

24.5 15%

Teleop

106.0 66%

Endgame

29.4 18%

Strengths

· 424 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3799, 432, 3951

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3799, 432, 3951

Auto

9.0 9%

Teleop

64.8 65%

Endgame

25.4 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score152.4pts

Blue projected score108.8pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.6
Score range: 85–176
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 390 vs event baseline 136.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

392.1Season APEX291.5

24.5Auto9

106Teleop64.8

29.4Endgame25.4

23Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	33
teleop	134	78
endgame	59	44
foul	15	10
total	225	165

Result

Final score

225 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 64.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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