Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

277.85 – 191.24

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

359 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 60.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 703.7 ±9.9

3015Ranger Robotics

A+

Season APEX 312.5Event APEX 164.47Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 65.44Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4253Raid Zero

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 47.94Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 435.1 ±13.5

340G.R.R. (Greater Rochester Robotics)

Season APEX 265.2Event APEX 111.1Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9767Magnificat MagnifiBots

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 36.43Rank 28Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4930Electric Mayhem

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 43.71Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3015, 48, 4253

/ 100 compat

Projected

277.9 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3015, 48, 4253

Auto

69.8 26%

Teleop

137.8 52%

Endgame

59.4 22%

Strengths

· 3015 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 340, 9767, 4930

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 340, 9767, 4930

Auto

31.3 18%

Teleop

98.5 57%

Endgame

41.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score277.9pts

Blue projected score191.2pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 86.6
Score range: 167–302
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 590 vs event baseline 133.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

703.7Season APEX435.1

69.8Auto31.3

137.8Teleop98.5

59.4Endgame41.9

56Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	83
teleop	236	85
endgame	46	48
foul	5	15
total	359	231

Result

Final score

359 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 60.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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