Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

49.73 – 229.6

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 47.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 276.8 ±17.7

3003TAN(X)

Season APEX 148.1Event APEX -3.04Rank 55Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 86

4093Hardwired

Provisional

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 20.02Rank 54Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9767Magnificat MagnifiBots

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 32.75Rank 28Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 488.2 ±13.4

1507Warlocks

Season APEX 154.7Event APEX 72.13Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

144Operation Orange

Season APEX 112.7Event APEX 19.62Rank 42Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

424Rust Belt Robotics

Season APEX 220.8Event APEX 137.85Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3003, 4093, 9767

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.7 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3003, 4093, 9767

Auto

14.0 35%

Teleop

8.8 22%

Endgame

17.7 44%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1507, 144, 424

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.6 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1507, 144, 424

Auto

29.5 13%

Teleop

137.2 62%

Endgame

55.1 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.61 · Blue 2.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score49.7pts

Blue projected score229.6pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -179.9
Score range: 21–259
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 185 vs event baseline 162.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

276.8Season APEX488.2

14Auto29.5

8.8Teleop137.2

17.7Endgame55.1

81Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	19
teleop	14	107
endgame	13	14
foul	5	5
total	40	145

Result

Final score

40 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 47.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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