Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

138.71 – 87.6

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

170 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 28.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 422.9 ±16.8

1507Warlocks

Season APEX 154.7Event APEX 81.65Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1591Greece Gladiators

Season APEX 206.6Event APEX 53.04Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1585Scitobor Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 4.02Rank 29Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 364.4 ±14.5

20The Rocketeers

Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 30.9Rank 40Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

7903Tigers

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 3.19Rank 53Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 88

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 53.51Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1507, 1591, 1585

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.7 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1507, 1591, 1585

Auto

20.5 15%

Teleop

85.5 64%

Endgame

26.9 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 20, 7903, 1511

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.6 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 20, 7903, 1511

Auto

7.8 9%

Teleop

38.6 44%

Endgame

41.4 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score138.7pts

Blue projected score87.6pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51.1
Score range: 64–163
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 232 vs event baseline 133.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

422.9Season APEX364.4

20.5Auto7.8

85.5Teleop38.6

26.9Endgame41.4

87Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	8
teleop	98	44
endgame	46	10
foul	0	0
total	170	62

Result

Final score

170 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 28.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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