Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

88.25 – 197.49

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

127 – 104

Prediction missed · off by 66.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 345.6 ±17

2228CougarTech

Season APEX 113Event APEX 28.18Rank 11Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3838Roc City Robotix

Provisional

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 59.86Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3003TAN(X)

Season APEX 148.1Event APEX 0.21Rank 55Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 329.2 ±17.3

5528Ultime

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 110.91Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1518Raider Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 31.32Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1559Devil Tech

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 55.26Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2228, 3838, 3003

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.2 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2228, 3838, 3003

Auto

25.2 33%

Teleop

34.1 45%

Endgame

16.7 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5528, 1518, 1559

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.5 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5528, 1518, 1559

Auto

57.8 29%

Teleop

105.7 53%

Endgame

34.8 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.91 · Blue 2.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score88.2pts

Blue projected score197.5pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -109.2
Score range: 64–221
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 231 vs event baseline 134.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

345.6Season APEX329.2

25.2Auto57.8

34.1Teleop105.7

16.7Endgame34.8

51Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	41
teleop	46	47
endgame	38	11
foul	10	5
total	127	104

Result

Final score

127 – 104

Prediction missed · off by 66.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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