Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

161.13 – 110.99

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

318 – 227

Prediction correct · off by 136.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 451.9 ±14.1

6423Ward Melville Iron Patriots

Season APEX 83Event APEX 16.74Rank 19Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

340G.R.R. (Greater Rochester Robotics)

Season APEX 265.2Event APEX 112.72Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

432The Final Countdown

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 31.67Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 438.2 ±13.9

8503Raid One

Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 34.62Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

810The Mechanical Bulls

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 18.8Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 57.57Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6423, 340, 432

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6423, 340, 432

Auto

43.0 30%

Teleop

77.1 54%

Endgame

23.7 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8503, 810, 3173

/ 100 compat

Projected

111 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8503, 810, 3173

Auto

22.2 21%

Teleop

69.0 66%

Endgame

13.6 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score161.1pts

Blue projected score111pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 50.1
Score range: 85–187
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 545 vs event baseline 143.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

451.9Season APEX438.2

43Auto22.2

77.1Teleop69

23.7Endgame13.6

0Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	51
teleop	197	123
endgame	57	53
foul	5	0
total	318	227

Result

Final score

318 – 227

Prediction correct · off by 136.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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