Qualification · Qualification 52
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
205.96 – 144.95
68%32%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
253 – 94
Prediction correct · off by 49 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 623.9 ±12.4
Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 35.77Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86
Season APEX 323.3Event APEX 121.61Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 48.58Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 352 ±13.9
Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 24.57Rank 48Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 20.54Rank 46Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 188.4Event APEX 99.84Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4930, 694, 1511
81
/ 100 compatProjected
206 pts
~2.0 RP (regional)
Teams: 4930, 694, 1511
Auto
30.7 15%
Teleop
108.1 54%
Endgame
61.5 31%
Strengths
- · 694 anchors offense
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 61%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1468, 9016, 1405
62
/ 100 compatProjected
145 pts
~1.1 RP (regional)
Teams: 1468, 9016, 1405
Auto
11.4 8%
Teleop
75.0 54%
Endgame
52.0 38%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 61%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.09
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score206pts
Blue projected score145pts
Red win probability68%
Event bonus sample198alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 61%, blue 41%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 61
- Score range
- 121–230
- Upset likelihood
- 32%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-17
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
623.9Season APEX352
30.7Auto11.4
108.1Teleop75
61.5Endgame52
33Consistency67
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 33 | 29 |
| teleop | 164 | 43 |
| endgame | 56 | 22 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 253 | 94 |
Result
Final score
253 – 94
Prediction correct · off by 49 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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