Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

313.24 – 117.36

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

358 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 40.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 700.2 ±10.5

3015Ranger Robotics

A+

Season APEX 312.5Event APEX 156.11Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3181Pittsford Panthers

Season APEX 233Event APEX 81.3Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1507Warlocks

Season APEX 154.7Event APEX 75.83Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 360 ±15

1126SPARX

Season APEX 118.9Event APEX 61.5Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1056Hot Rocks

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 61.78Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

271Mechanical Marauders

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX -5.92Rank 27Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3015, 3181, 1507

/ 100 compat

Projected

313.2 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3015, 3181, 1507

Auto

60.0 19%

Teleop

178.0 57%

Endgame

73.6 24%

Strengths

· 3015 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1126, 1056, 271

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.4 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1126, 1056, 271

Auto

19.7 17%

Teleop

78.0 68%

Endgame

17.6 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.48 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score313.2pts

Blue projected score117.4pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 195.9
Score range: 93–337
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 512 vs event baseline 130.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

700.2Season APEX360

60Auto19.7

178Teleop78

73.6Endgame17.6

107Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	23
teleop	208	83
endgame	60	48
foul	15	0
total	358	154

Result

Final score

358 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 40.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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