Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

110.4 – 92.98

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

133 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 19.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 295.2 ±17.7

6947Savage Tumaz

Provisional

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 25.73Rank 38Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2228CougarTech

Season APEX 113Event APEX 28.94Rank 11Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1559Devil Tech

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 55.73Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 226.5 ±22.5

10223Crimson Jewels

Provisional

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 26.26Rank 26Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1518Raider Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 35.65Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1450XQ Robotix Team 1450

Provisional

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 31.07Rank 50Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6947, 2228, 1559

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6947, 2228, 1559

Auto

36.1 40%

Teleop

41.2 45%

Endgame

13.9 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10223, 1518, 1450

/ 100 compat

Projected

93 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10223, 1518, 1450

Auto

30.5 33%

Teleop

59.1 63%

Endgame

4.2 4%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score110.4pts

Blue projected score93pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.4
Score range: 69–134
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 209 vs event baseline 131.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

295.2Season APEX226.5

36.1Auto30.5

41.2Teleop59.1

13.9Endgame4.2

0Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	44
teleop	85	10
endgame	19	22
foul	0	0
total	133	76

Result

Final score

133 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 19.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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