Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

208.35 – 63.43

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

169 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 31.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 472.2 ±14.1

3181Pittsford Panthers

Season APEX 233Event APEX 126.11Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1126SPARX

Season APEX 118.9Event APEX 61.03Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

20The Rocketeers

Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 21.21Rank 40Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 315.1 ±15.6

5590Alumiboti

Season APEX 149.8Event APEX 15.26Rank 51Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 86

6423Ward Melville Iron Patriots

Season APEX 83Event APEX 32.1Rank 19Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

325Respawn Robotics

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 16.07Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3181, 1126, 20

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.4 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3181, 1126, 20

Auto

26.3 13%

Teleop

108.7 54%

Endgame

66.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5590, 6423, 325

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.4 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5590, 6423, 325

Auto

16.3 28%

Teleop

28.3 48%

Endgame

14.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.27 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score208.4pts

Blue projected score63.4pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 144.9
Score range: 34–237
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 208 vs event baseline 162.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

472.2Season APEX315.1

26.3Auto16.3

108.7Teleop28.3

66.7Endgame14.1

42Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	15
teleop	100	13
endgame	53	6
foul	0	5
total	169	39

Result

Final score

169 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 31.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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