Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

30.66 – 92.79

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 14.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 282.9 ±19.7

4253Raid Zero

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 57.08Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4093Hardwired

Provisional

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 14.03Rank 54Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7030The ROBOlympians

Provisional

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX -40.45Rank 32Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 264.4 ±19.8

191X-CATS

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 38.93Rank 41Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1585Scitobor Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX -4.52Rank 29Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3838Roc City Robotix

Provisional

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 58.38Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4253, 4093, 7030

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.7 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4253, 4093, 7030

Auto

13.8 44%

Teleop

13.9 45%

Endgame

3.4 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 191, 1585, 3838

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 191, 1585, 3838

Auto

23.2 29%

Teleop

38.7 48%

Endgame

19.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.08 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score30.7pts

Blue projected score92.8pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -62.1
Score range: 7–117
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 153 vs event baseline 132.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

282.9Season APEX264.4

13.8Auto23.2

13.9Teleop38.7

3.4Endgame19.1

80Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	13
teleop	20	78
endgame	3	20
foul	0	0
total	42	111

Result

Final score

42 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 14.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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