Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

160.44 – 0

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

75 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 56.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 424.5 ±14.5

1405Finney Falcons

Season APEX 188.4Event APEX 108.31Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8503Raid One

Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 43.15Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6423Ward Melville Iron Patriots

Season APEX 83Event APEX 8.98Rank 19Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 387.2 ±13.9

639Code Red Robotics

Season APEX 69.4Event APEX 5.55Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

353POBots

Season APEX 169.7Event APEX -25.54Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3003TAN(X)

Season APEX 148.1Event APEX 1.1Rank 55Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1405, 8503, 6423

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.4 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1405, 8503, 6423

Auto

16.7 11%

Teleop

89.6 60%

Endgame

42.4 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 639, 353, 3003

/ 100 compat

Projected

-18.9 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 639, 353, 3003

Auto

-3.7 25%

Teleop

-14.6 99%

Endgame

3.6 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.39 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score160.4pts

Blue projected score-18.9pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 160.4
Score range: -24–184
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 102 vs event baseline 133.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

424.5Season APEX387.2

16.7Auto-3.7

89.6Teleop-14.6

42.4Endgame3.6

97Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	10
teleop	42	2
endgame	22	15
foul	0	0
total	75	27

Result

Final score

75 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 56.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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