Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

70.36 – 82.65

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

188 – 100

Prediction missed · off by 67.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 347.8 ±18.2

1126SPARX

Season APEX 118.9Event APEX 42.27Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3799Electric Fire

Provisional

Season APEX 98Event APEX 17.68Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

810The Mechanical Bulls

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 10.41Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 340.7 ±15

4930Electric Mayhem

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 47.84Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

1591Greece Gladiators

Season APEX 206.6Event APEX 40.16Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7903Tigers

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX -5.35Rank 53Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1126, 3799, 810

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1126, 3799, 810

Auto

1.7 2%

Teleop

51.6 73%

Endgame

17.6 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4930, 1591, 7903

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.7 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4930, 1591, 7903

Auto

21.5 28%

Teleop

41.7 54%

Endgame

14.5 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score70.4pts

Blue projected score82.7pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.3
Score range: 46–107
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 288 vs event baseline 133.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

347.8Season APEX340.7

1.7Auto21.5

51.6Teleop41.7

17.6Endgame14.5

75Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	22
teleop	126	44
endgame	29	34
foul	0	0
total	188	100

Result

Final score

188 – 100

Prediction missed · off by 67.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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