Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

141.32 – 150.29

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

244 – 194

Prediction missed · off by 73.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 454.4 ±19.1

1518Raider Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 22.77Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

6947Savage Tumaz

Provisional

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 8.21Rank 38Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

694StuyPulse

A+

Season APEX 323.3Event APEX 110.34Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 469.5 ±12.9

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 41.56Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3181Pittsford Panthers

Season APEX 233Event APEX 85.92Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

325Respawn Robotics

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 22.81Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1518, 6947, 694

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1518, 6947, 694

Auto

47.0 35%

Teleop

70.7 53%

Endgame

15.1 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3173, 3181, 325

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3173, 3181, 325

Auto

8.4 6%

Teleop

95.9 64%

Endgame

45.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score141.3pts

Blue projected score150.3pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9
Score range: 117–174
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 438 vs event baseline 131.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

454.4Season APEX469.5

47Auto8.4

70.7Teleop95.9

15.1Endgame45.8

124Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	34
teleop	147	98
endgame	42	57
foul	5	5
total	244	194

Result

Final score

244 – 194

Prediction missed · off by 73.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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