Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

159.86 – 97.14

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

186 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 44 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 335.4 ±16.6

6868Cadet Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 8.4Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5528Ultime

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 119.94Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

432The Final Countdown

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 31.52Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 291.7 ±19.7

378The Circuit Stompers

Provisional

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 21.85Rank 52Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1507Warlocks

Season APEX 154.7Event APEX 61.16Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10223Crimson Jewels

Provisional

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 14.13Rank 26Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6868, 5528, 432

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6868, 5528, 432

Auto

53.9 36%

Teleop

65.9 44%

Endgame

30.5 20%

Strengths

· 5528 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 378, 1507, 10223

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.1 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 378, 1507, 10223

Auto

16.8 18%

Teleop

58.6 61%

Endgame

19.9 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score159.9pts

Blue projected score97.1pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 62.7
Score range: 73–184
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 345 vs event baseline 130.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

335.4Season APEX291.7

53.9Auto16.8

65.9Teleop58.6

30.5Endgame19.9

152Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	36
teleop	88	52
endgame	44	56
foul	0	15
total	186	159

Result

Final score

186 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 44 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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