Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

106.19 – 252.88

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

82 – 362

Prediction correct · off by 66.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 217.8 ±17.7

1450XQ Robotix Team 1450

Provisional

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 32.3Rank 50Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

564Longwood RoboLions

Season APEX 64.9Event APEX 14.68Rank 44Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

1056Hot Rocks

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 59.21Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 594.7 ±12.9

424Rust Belt Robotics

Season APEX 220.8Event APEX 119.11Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

340G.R.R. (Greater Rochester Robotics)

Season APEX 265.2Event APEX 93.98Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4458Infernobotix

Season APEX 108.7Event APEX 39.79Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1450, 564, 1056

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.2 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1450, 564, 1056

Auto

0.7 1%

Teleop

71.3 68%

Endgame

33.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 424, 340, 4458

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.9 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 424, 340, 4458

Auto

39.3 16%

Teleop

177.7 72%

Endgame

30.5 12%

Strengths

· 424 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.76 · Blue 2.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score106.2pts

Blue projected score252.9pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -146.7
Score range: 83–276
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 444 vs event baseline 128.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

217.8Season APEX594.7

0.7Auto39.3

71.3Teleop177.7

33.4Endgame30.5

52Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	58
teleop	46	208
endgame	1	81
foul	0	15
total	82	362

Result

Final score

82 – 362

Prediction correct · off by 66.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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