Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

99.04 – 111.05

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

82 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 26.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 321.2 ±17

3838Roc City Robotix

Provisional

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 64.53Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1468Hicksville J-Birds

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 26.49Rank 48Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5590Alumiboti

Season APEX 149.8Event APEX 8.02Rank 51Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 408.2 ±12.4

2228CougarTech

Season APEX 113Event APEX 28.65Rank 11Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9767Magnificat MagnifiBots

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 6.72Rank 28Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 75.68Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3838, 1468, 5590

/ 100 compat

Projected

99 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3838, 1468, 5590

Auto

27.1 33%

Teleop

37.8 46%

Endgame

16.4 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2228, 9767, 48

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2228, 9767, 48

Auto

24.8 22%

Teleop

43.5 38%

Endgame

45.1 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score99pts

Blue projected score111.1pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12
Score range: 76–134
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 229 vs event baseline 128.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

321.2Season APEX408.2

27.1Auto24.8

37.8Teleop43.5

16.4Endgame45.1

81Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	25
teleop	41	1
endgame	30	46
foul	0	75
total	82	147

Result

Final score

82 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 26.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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