Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

65.86 – 182.29

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 13.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 345.1 ±15

3003TAN(X)

Season APEX 148.1Event APEX 7.98Rank 55Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 86

20The Rocketeers

Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 24.07Rank 40Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

9016Syosset SuperSonics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 33.81Rank 46Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 629.7 ±13.4

4253Raid Zero

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 52.44Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3044Team 0xBE4

Season APEX 259.2Event APEX 45.7Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2340Mercy Robotics-Xcentrics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 84.15Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3003, 20, 9016

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.9 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3003, 20, 9016

Auto

19.1 31%

Teleop

28.9 46%

Endgame

14.4 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4253, 3044, 2340

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.3 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4253, 3044, 2340

Auto

40.9 25%

Teleop

87.4 54%

Endgame

33.3 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.8 · Blue 2.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score65.9pts

Blue projected score182.3pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -116.4
Score range: 43–205
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 222 vs event baseline 129.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

345.1Season APEX629.7

19.1Auto40.9

28.9Teleop87.4

14.4Endgame33.3

72Consistency119

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	3	26
teleop	14	113
endgame	22	39
foul	5	0
total	44	178

Result

Final score

44 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 13.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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