Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

88.57 – 153.05

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

71 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 22.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 209.7 ±22.5

1518Raider Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 23.82Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3799Electric Fire

Provisional

Season APEX 98Event APEX 44.59Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

378The Circuit Stompers

Provisional

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 20.16Rank 52Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 403.8 ±15.8

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 61.29Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3951SUITS

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 53.86Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

4458Infernobotix

Season APEX 108.7Event APEX 37.9Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1518, 3799, 378

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.6 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1518, 3799, 378

Auto

20.0 23%

Teleop

49.3 58%

Endgame

16.1 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1511, 3951, 4458

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.1 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 1511, 3951, 4458

Auto

15.3 11%

Teleop

81.8 56%

Endgame

48.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score88.6pts

Blue projected score153.1pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -64.5
Score range: 60–182
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 251 vs event baseline 162.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

209.7Season APEX403.8

20Auto15.3

49.3Teleop81.8

16.1Endgame48

94Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	18
teleop	47	100
endgame	3	52
foul	0	10
total	71	180

Result

Final score

71 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 22.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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