Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

127.19 – 236.32

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

69 – 386

Prediction correct · off by 103.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 312.6 ±18.1

10922Amped

Season APEX 161.2Event APEX 58.02Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3951SUITS

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 50.09Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1585Scitobor Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 19.08Rank 29Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 644.3 ±11.9

3015Ranger Robotics

A+

Season APEX 312.5Event APEX 119.97Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1559Devil Tech

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 31.44Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

1787The Flying Circuits

Season APEX 209.9Event APEX 84.91Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10922, 3951, 1585

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.2 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10922, 3951, 1585

Auto

25.4 20%

Teleop

75.0 60%

Endgame

25.2 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3015, 1559, 1787

/ 100 compat

Projected

236.3 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3015, 1559, 1787

Auto

75.2 32%

Teleop

118.2 50%

Endgame

43.8 18%

Strengths

· 3015 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score127.2pts

Blue projected score236.3pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -109.1
Score range: 104–259
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 455 vs event baseline 128.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

312.6Season APEX644.3

25.4Auto75.2

75Teleop118.2

25.2Endgame43.8

151Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	112
teleop	52	212
endgame	12	62
foul	0	0
total	69	386

Result

Final score

69 – 386

Prediction correct · off by 103.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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