Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 87.08

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

54 – 50

Prediction missed · off by 45.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 244.2 ±18.2

432The Final Countdown

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 8.42Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 88

7030The ROBOlympians

Provisional

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX -35.21Rank 32Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

325Respawn Robotics

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 24.45Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 244.6 ±19.8

6868Cadet Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 18.14Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4930Electric Mayhem

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 56.2Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

4093Hardwired

Provisional

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 12.74Rank 54Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 432, 7030, 325

/ 100 compat

Projected

-2.3 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 432, 7030, 325

Auto

20.4 0%

Teleop

-25.8 100%

Endgame

-5.3 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6868, 4930, 4093

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.1 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 6868, 4930, 4093

Auto

15.9 19%

Teleop

34.9 42%

Endgame

32.4 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.03 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score-2.3pts

Blue projected score87.1pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -87.1
Score range: -23–110
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 104 vs event baseline 130.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

244.2Season APEX244.6

20.4Auto15.9

-25.8Teleop34.9

-5.3Endgame32.4

84Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	21
teleop	12	25
endgame	16	4
foul	10	0
total	54	50

Result

Final score

54 – 50

Prediction missed · off by 45.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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