Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

77.06 – 104.83

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

206 – 256

Prediction correct · off by 140.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 468.1 ±16.1

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 36.78Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

378The Circuit Stompers

Provisional

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 6.17Rank 52Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1591Greece Gladiators

Season APEX 206.6Event APEX 34.11Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 499.6 ±13

694StuyPulse

A+

Season APEX 323.3Event APEX 74.37Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6423Ward Melville Iron Patriots

Season APEX 83Event APEX -5.57Rank 19Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1056Hot Rocks

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 36.03Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 48, 378, 1591

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 48, 378, 1591

Auto

33.7 49%

Teleop

17.6 26%

Endgame

17.1 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 694, 6423, 1056

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 694, 6423, 1056

Auto

17.1 18%

Teleop

69.1 71%

Endgame

10.9 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score77.1pts

Blue projected score104.8pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.8
Score range: 54–128
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 462 vs event baseline 126.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

468.1Season APEX499.6

33.7Auto17.1

17.6Teleop69.1

17.1Endgame10.9

118Consistency186

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	46
teleop	124	152
endgame	58	58
foul	0	0
total	206	256

Result

Final score

206 – 256

Prediction correct · off by 140.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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