Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

174.8 – 175.91

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

274 – 152

Prediction missed · off by 61.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 685.3 ±12.1

3044Team 0xBE4

Season APEX 259.2Event APEX 14.24Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

424Rust Belt Robotics

Season APEX 220.8Event APEX 113.85Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 46.71Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 448.4 ±16.2

3181Pittsford Panthers

Season APEX 233Event APEX 77.85Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3838Roc City Robotix

Provisional

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 62.5Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

810The Mechanical Bulls

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 35.56Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3044, 424, 1511

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3044, 424, 1511

Auto

25.1 15%

Teleop

117.0 70%

Endgame

26.2 16%

Strengths

· 424 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3181, 3838, 810

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.9 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3181, 3838, 810

Auto

30.6 18%

Teleop

112.2 66%

Endgame

26.7 16%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score174.8pts

Blue projected score175.9pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.1
Score range: 153–198
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 426 vs event baseline 123.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

685.3Season APEX448.4

25.1Auto30.6

117Teleop112.2

26.2Endgame26.7

37Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	15
teleop	180	60
endgame	57	72
foul	0	5
total	274	152

Result

Final score

274 – 152

Prediction missed · off by 61.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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