Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

53.38 – 67.77

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

95 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 42.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 458.8 ±14.1

271Mechanical Marauders

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 21.87Rank 27Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

5590Alumiboti

Season APEX 149.8Event APEX -11.93Rank 51Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 86

10922Amped

Season APEX 161.2Event APEX 43.44Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 303 ±19.7

1518Raider Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 3.64Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4253Raid Zero

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 35.42Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1585Scitobor Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 28.71Rank 29Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 271, 5590, 10922

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 271, 5590, 10922

Auto

25.9 46%

Teleop

4.6 8%

Endgame

25.3 45%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1518, 4253, 1585

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1518, 4253, 1585

Auto

22.5 35%

Teleop

34.1 53%

Endgame

7.5 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score53.4pts

Blue projected score67.8pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.4
Score range: 31–90
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 206 vs event baseline 124.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

458.8Season APEX303

25.9Auto22.5

4.6Teleop34.1

25.3Endgame7.5

145Consistency219

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	32
teleop	70	68
endgame	0	11
foul	0	0
total	95	111

Result

Final score

95 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 42.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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