Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

74.93 – 34.88

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

20 – 81

Prediction missed · off by 50.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 284.7 ±17.7

1450XQ Robotix Team 1450

Provisional

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 56.35Rank 50Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

578Fairport Robotics

Season APEX 77Event APEX 6.21Rank 45Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3003TAN(X)

Season APEX 148.1Event APEX 12.37Rank 55Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 265.4 ±18.2

1126SPARX

Season APEX 118.9Event APEX 35.8Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

7030The ROBOlympians

Provisional

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX -36.93Rank 32Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1781Lindblom Electric Eagles

Season APEX 88.3Event APEX 36.01Rank 36Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1450, 578, 3003

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1450, 578, 3003

Auto

6.3 8%

Teleop

59.8 78%

Endgame

10.6 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1126, 7030, 1781

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1126, 7030, 1781

Auto

28.2 72%

Teleop

10.9 28%

Endgame

0.2 1%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score74.9pts

Blue projected score34.9pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.1
Score range: 12–98
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 101 vs event baseline 127.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

284.7Season APEX265.4

6.3Auto28.2

59.8Teleop10.9

10.6Endgame0.2

83Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	15
teleop	10	40
endgame	2	26
foul	0	0
total	20	81

Result

Final score

20 – 81

Prediction missed · off by 50.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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