Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

217.66 – 72.31

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

218 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 26 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 505.5 ±12.4

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 63.5Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7903Tigers

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX -7.88Rank 53Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 88

3015Ranger Robotics

A+

Season APEX 312.5Event APEX 162.04Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 291.4 ±17.7

10223Crimson Jewels

Provisional

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 33.41Rank 26Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

191X-CATS

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 26.71Rank 41Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

578Fairport Robotics

Season APEX 77Event APEX 12.19Rank 45Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3173, 7903, 3015

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.7 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3173, 7903, 3015

Auto

70.6 33%

Teleop

124.7 58%

Endgame

20.7 10%

Strengths

· 3015 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10223, 191, 578

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.3 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10223, 191, 578

Auto

15.6 25%

Teleop

25.9 41%

Endgame

21.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.31 · Blue 0.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score217.7pts

Blue projected score72.3pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 145.4
Score range: 43–247
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 342 vs event baseline 162.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

505.5Season APEX291.4

70.6Auto15.6

124.7Teleop25.9

20.7Endgame21.5

81Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	19
teleop	119	62
endgame	28	28
foul	5	15
total	218	124

Result

Final score

218 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 26 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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