Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

204.58 – 98.18

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

217 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 59.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 515.3 ±14.5

3951SUITS

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 48.77Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

3015Ranger Robotics

A+

Season APEX 312.5Event APEX 119.67Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2228CougarTech

Season APEX 113Event APEX 36.14Rank 11Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 362.8 ±17.7

20The Rocketeers

Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 12.76Rank 40Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1405Finney Falcons

Season APEX 188.4Event APEX 89.84Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4093Hardwired

Provisional

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX -4.42Rank 54Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3951, 3015, 2228

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.6 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3951, 3015, 2228

Auto

53.3 28%

Teleop

120.1 63%

Endgame

18.0 9%

Strengths

· 3015 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 20, 1405, 4093

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.2 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 20, 1405, 4093

Auto

16.6 17%

Teleop

38.2 40%

Endgame

40.8 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.13 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score204.6pts

Blue projected score98.2pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 106.4
Score range: 76–227
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 421 vs event baseline 124.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

515.3Season APEX362.8

53.3Auto16.6

120.1Teleop38.2

18Endgame40.8

47Consistency199

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	9
teleop	85	104
endgame	58	86
foul	0	5
total	217	204

Result

Final score

217 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 59.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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