Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

79.2 – 0

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

184 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 67.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 336.1 ±13.9

5528Ultime

Season APEX 136.5Event APEX 76.47Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1468Hicksville J-Birds

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 19.76Rank 48Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

144Operation Orange

Season APEX 112.7Event APEX -17.03Rank 42Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 182.1 ±18.2

7903Tigers

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 11.96Rank 53Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 88

6947Savage Tumaz

Provisional

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX -15.2Rank 38Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

6423Ward Melville Iron Patriots

Season APEX 83Event APEX -4.34Rank 19Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5528, 1468, 144

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.2 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5528, 1468, 144

Auto

20.4 28%

Teleop

39.5 55%

Endgame

12.5 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7903, 6947, 6423

/ 100 compat

Projected

-7.6 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7903, 6947, 6423

Auto

15.3 0%

Teleop

-2.7 41%

Endgame

-19.2 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score79.2pts

Blue projected score-7.6pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 79.2
Score range: -23–102
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 215 vs event baseline 125.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

336.1Season APEX182.1

20.4Auto15.3

39.5Teleop-2.7

12.5Endgame-19.2

26Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	10
teleop	94	14
endgame	38	2
foul	5	5
total	184	31

Result

Final score

184 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 67.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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