Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

180.74 – 186.11

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

35 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 113.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 464 ±17.3

4458Infernobotix

Season APEX 108.7Event APEX 61.51Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3044Team 0xBE4

Season APEX 259.2Event APEX 53.26Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10223Crimson Jewels

Provisional

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 65.97Rank 26Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 640.2 ±11.6

353POBots

Season APEX 169.7Event APEX 18.16Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 61.11Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

340G.R.R. (Greater Rochester Robotics)

Season APEX 265.2Event APEX 106.84Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4458, 3044, 10223

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4458, 3044, 10223

Auto

16.7 10%

Teleop

116.8 67%

Endgame

41.1 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 353, 1511, 340

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 353, 1511, 340

Auto

44.3 24%

Teleop

98.8 53%

Endgame

43.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score180.7pts

Blue projected score186.1pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.4
Score range: 158–209
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 140 vs event baseline 127.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

464Season APEX640.2

16.7Auto44.3

116.8Teleop98.8

41.1Endgame43.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	5
teleop	7	68
endgame	0	32
foul	0	0
total	35	105

Result

Final score

35 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 113.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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