Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

68.39 – 125.64

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

225 – 126

Prediction missed · off by 78.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 469.1 ±16

6868Cadet Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX -7.52Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8503Raid One

Season APEX 153.1Event APEX -5.56Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

424Rust Belt Robotics

Season APEX 220.8Event APEX 81.47Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 677.7 ±13

694StuyPulse

A+

Season APEX 323.3Event APEX 60.55Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

271Mechanical Marauders

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 11.27Rank 27Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

1591Greece Gladiators

Season APEX 206.6Event APEX 53.82Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6868, 8503, 424

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.4 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6868, 8503, 424

Auto

23.1 39%

Teleop

51.4 86%

Endgame

-14.9 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 694, 271, 1591

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 694, 271, 1591

Auto

24.0 20%

Teleop

61.8 52%

Endgame

32.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score68.4pts

Blue projected score125.6pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -57.2
Score range: 45–149
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 351 vs event baseline 125.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

469.1Season APEX677.7

23.1Auto24

51.4Teleop61.8

-14.9Endgame32.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	48
teleop	127	56
endgame	50	17
foul	15	5
total	225	126

Result

Final score

225 – 126

Prediction missed · off by 78.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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