Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

163.05 – 137.16

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

198 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 27.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 371.9 ±14.5

1559Devil Tech

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 51.88Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

1507Warlocks

Season APEX 154.7Event APEX 66.56Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4930Electric Mayhem

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 44.61Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 468 ±15.6

2340Mercy Robotics-Xcentrics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 74.7Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

5590Alumiboti

Season APEX 149.8Event APEX 7.51Rank 51Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 86

191X-CATS

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 54.95Rank 41Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1559, 1507, 4930

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1559, 1507, 4930

Auto

21.6 13%

Teleop

103.2 64%

Endgame

36.6 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2340, 5590, 191

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.2 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2340, 5590, 191

Auto

25.5 22%

Teleop

55.0 48%

Endgame

33.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score163.1pts

Blue projected score137.2pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.9
Score range: 115–185
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 316 vs event baseline 124.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

371.9Season APEX468

21.6Auto25.5

103.2Teleop55

36.6Endgame33.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	24
teleop	104	50
endgame	58	14
foul	5	30
total	198	118

Result

Final score

198 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 27.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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