Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

120.65 – 105.44

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

58 – 112

Prediction missed · off by 34.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 222.5 ±17.7

639Code Red Robotics

Season APEX 69.4Event APEX 42.76Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

325Respawn Robotics

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 56.1Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

1518Raider Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 21.79Rank 49Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 439.8 ±13.7

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 26.61Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1781Lindblom Electric Eagles

Season APEX 88.3Event APEX 44.41Rank 36Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

810The Mechanical Bulls

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 34.42Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 639, 325, 1518

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 639, 325, 1518

Auto

28.3 25%

Teleop

56.7 50%

Endgame

29.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 48, 1781, 810

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.4 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 48, 1781, 810

Auto

17.4 16%

Teleop

56.1 52%

Endgame

34.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score120.7pts

Blue projected score105.4pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.2
Score range: 82–144
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 170 vs event baseline 125.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

222.5Season APEX439.8

28.3Auto17.4

56.7Teleop56.1

29.1Endgame34.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	22
teleop	11	58
endgame	28	32
foul	0	0
total	58	112

Result

Final score

58 – 112

Prediction missed · off by 34.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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