Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

191.26 – 83.4

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

125 – 18

Prediction correct · off by 65.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 344.1 ±16.4

1787The Flying Circuits

Season APEX 209.9Event APEX 111.69Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

378The Circuit Stompers

Provisional

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 32.88Rank 52Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1056Hot Rocks

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 46.69Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 244.1 ±17.2

4093Hardwired

Provisional

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 7.99Rank 54Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2228CougarTech

Season APEX 113Event APEX 60.08Rank 11Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

578Fairport Robotics

Season APEX 77Event APEX 15.33Rank 45Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1787, 378, 1056

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.3 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1787, 378, 1056

Auto

37.9 19%

Teleop

130.2 66%

Endgame

30.0 15%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4093, 2228, 578

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.4 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4093, 2228, 578

Auto

13.5 18%

Teleop

37.3 51%

Endgame

22.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.1 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score191.3pts

Blue projected score83.4pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 107.9
Score range: 60–214
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 143 vs event baseline 128.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

344.1Season APEX244.1

37.9Auto13.5

130.2Teleop37.3

30Endgame22.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	8
teleop	52	4
endgame	28	6
foul	10	0
total	125	18

Result

Final score

125 – 18

Prediction correct · off by 65.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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