Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

155.28 – 83.91

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

100 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 32.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 491 ±16.6

7030The ROBOlympians

Provisional

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 4.97Rank 32Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

20The Rocketeers

Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 34.11Rank 40Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3015Ranger Robotics

A+

Season APEX 312.5Event APEX 116.2Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 287.4 ±17.7

9016Syosset SuperSonics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 51.26Rank 46Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

144Operation Orange

Season APEX 112.7Event APEX 2.71Rank 42Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

3799Electric Fire

Provisional

Season APEX 98Event APEX 29.94Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7030, 20, 3015

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7030, 20, 3015

Auto

36.8 25%

Teleop

85.0 57%

Endgame

27.9 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9016, 144, 3799

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9016, 144, 3799

Auto

14.7 19%

Teleop

56.1 72%

Endgame

7.6 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score155.3pts

Blue projected score83.9pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 71.4
Score range: 60–179
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 174 vs event baseline 133.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

491Season APEX287.4

36.8Auto14.7

85Teleop56.1

27.9Endgame7.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	18
teleop	31	31
endgame	0	25
foul	0	0
total	100	74

Result

Final score

100 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 32.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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