Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

117.7 – 110.93

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

148 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 20.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 320.3 ±15.6

9767Magnificat MagnifiBots

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 3.8Rank 28Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

10922Amped

Season APEX 161.2Event APEX 41.85Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3838Roc City Robotix

Provisional

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 72.05Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 419.9 ±14.1

7903Tigers

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 14.78Rank 53Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 88

3003TAN(X)

Season APEX 148.1Event APEX 27.25Rank 55Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 86

3181Pittsford Panthers

Season APEX 233Event APEX 68.9Rank 7Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9767, 10922, 3838

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9767, 10922, 3838

Auto

28.2 24%

Teleop

62.8 54%

Endgame

24.6 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7903, 3003, 3181

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7903, 3003, 3181

Auto

17.3 17%

Teleop

66.4 63%

Endgame

20.9 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score117.7pts

Blue projected score110.9pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.8
Score range: 87–142
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 248 vs event baseline 133.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

320.3Season APEX419.9

28.2Auto17.3

62.8Teleop66.4

24.6Endgame20.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	19
teleop	55	72
endgame	52	9
foul	5	0
total	148	100

Result

Final score

148 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 20.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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