Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

134.85 – 112.65

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

90 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 40.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 440.3 ±14.5

1559Devil Tech

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 63Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

4253Raid Zero

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 47.53Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

271Mechanical Marauders

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 24.32Rank 27Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 397.2 ±14.5

1591Greece Gladiators

Season APEX 206.6Event APEX 50.32Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

432The Final Countdown

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 54.53Rank 18Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 88

1468Hicksville J-Birds

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 7.8Rank 48Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1559, 4253, 271

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.9 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 1559, 4253, 271

Auto

27.9 21%

Teleop

71.7 55%

Endgame

30.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1591, 432, 1468

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1591, 432, 1468

Auto

27.8 28%

Teleop

38.4 38%

Endgame

34.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score134.9pts

Blue projected score112.7pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.2
Score range: 84–164
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 167 vs event baseline 162.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

440.3Season APEX397.2

27.9Auto27.8

71.7Teleop38.4

30.4Endgame34.7

47Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	16
teleop	30	32
endgame	28	9
foul	5	20
total	90	77

Result

Final score

90 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 40.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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