Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

140.4 – 58.26

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

215 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 69.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 512.6 ±13.9

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 35.35Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1126SPARX

Season APEX 118.9Event APEX 37.98Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1405Finney Falcons

Season APEX 188.4Event APEX 67.07Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 420 ±15.6

4253Raid Zero

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 19.94Rank 37Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 58.65Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6868Cadet Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX -20.33Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1511, 1126, 1405

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.4 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1511, 1126, 1405

Auto

20.2 15%

Teleop

84.1 62%

Endgame

32.2 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4253, 3173, 6868

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4253, 3173, 6868

Auto

26.4 47%

Teleop

20.5 37%

Endgame

8.8 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.08 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score140.4pts

Blue projected score58.3pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 82.1
Score range: 34–164
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 338 vs event baseline 131.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

512.6Season APEX420

20.2Auto26.4

84.1Teleop20.5

32.2Endgame8.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	39
teleop	113	57
endgame	80	27
foul	0	0
total	215	123

Result

Final score

215 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 69.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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