Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

91.01 – 171.96

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

219 – 278

Prediction correct · off by 117 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 442.9 ±14.5

1781Lindblom Electric Eagles

Season APEX 88.3Event APEX 6.58Rank 36Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1507Warlocks

Season APEX 154.7Event APEX 47.76Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2340Mercy Robotics-Xcentrics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 36.67Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 543.7 ±12.2

424Rust Belt Robotics

Season APEX 220.8Event APEX 47.76Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2228CougarTech

Season APEX 113Event APEX 36.67Rank 11Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1787The Flying Circuits

Season APEX 209.9Event APEX 87.53Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1781, 1507, 2340

/ 100 compat

Projected

91 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1781, 1507, 2340

Auto

17.3 20%

Teleop

58.9 69%

Endgame

9.5 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 424, 2228, 1787

/ 100 compat

Projected

172 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 424, 2228, 1787

Auto

36.4 22%

Teleop

108.2 65%

Endgame

22.1 13%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.21 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score91pts

Blue projected score172pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -80.9
Score range: 69–194
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 497 vs event baseline 119.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

442.9Season APEX543.7

17.3Auto36.4

58.9Teleop108.2

9.5Endgame22.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	63
teleop	128	181
endgame	70	34
foul	5	0
total	219	278

Result

Final score

219 – 278

Prediction correct · off by 117 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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